'India is an equity market with a breadth and depth of companies to invest in.'
Indian equity markets had a good run in the first half of calendar year 2023 (CY23), with the S&P BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty50 hitting fresh 52-week highs. While the Sensex scaled up to a peak 64,718, the Nifty50 hit Mt 19,189. As the markets now prepare to enter the second half (H2) of CY23, all eyes are on global central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve, as to when they will pause and pivot as regards their interest-rate cycle.
With the markets scaling new highs, as many as 43 stocks from the Nifty50 index and 27 of the 30 scrips that are part of the S&P BSE Sensex are trading above their respective 200-day moving average (DMA). The 200-DMA is seen as one of the most relevant trend indicators by investors and traders, who believe that stocks and indices trading above this level possess strength and are likely to rally in the short to medium term, while the ones trading below this level are viewed as bearish and expected to see a sell-off. Wipro, UPL, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Hindalco, Infosys, Cipla, and Adani Enterprises are the only stocks from the Nifty50 pack that are still below their respective 200-DMA, the exchange data suggests.
The sharp rally in the markets thus far in fiscal 2023-24 (FY24) has left analysts struggling to find investment-worthy themes. The S&P BSE Sensex has surged nearly 7 per cent thus far in FY24 and hit a fresh 52-week high of 63,601.71 levels on June 22, mostly led by foreign institutional (FII) flows. "The Indian market has seen a broad rally in the past few months but headline indices have seen more modest performance. "We are not very clear about the reasons for the rally and the divergent performance and struggle to find ideas in the consumption, investment and outsourcing sectors after the sharp run-up in several of our favored sectors and stocks in the past two months," wrote Sanjeev Prasad, co-head, Kotak Institutional Equities, in a recent co-authored note with Anindya Bhowmik and Sunita Baldawa.
Equity and oil markets can breathe easy for now, as the developments in Russia are unlikely to trigger a runaway rally in crude oil prices, said analysts. India, which imports nearly 80 per cent of its crude oil requirement, has been dependent on cheap Russian oil over the past few months to keep inflation - a sore point for the equity markets - in check. For the Indian markets that are expected to remain volatile amid these developments, analysts believe, the progress of monsoon, fund flows - both foreign institutional investor (FII) and domestic - and the upcoming corporate earnings season back home remain key.
'Geopolitical risks and their impact on oil prices, if any, are another concern for global markets, particularly for India.'
JP Morgan has reiterated its negative stance on Indian information technology (IT) services and downgraded the sector to underweight (neutral earlier post Q4-FY23 numbers), as it believes the overall demand environment for the sector still remains weak. The research firm expects most companies in the sector to disappoint while announcing their first quarter numbers for the current fiscal (Q1-FY24). Among stocks, it has placed Infosys, TCS, MphasiS in its 'negative catalyst watch'.
Nifty50's earnings growth, estimated at 20 per cent by global research and brokerage firm Jefferies for financial year 2023-24 (FY24), will be amongst the top three in the Asian region, and is likely to outperform peers. Asean 40 index with 29.1 per cent estimated earnings growth and Straits Times Index (STI) with 29.1 per cent estimated earnings growth are the only two other indices in the Asian region that are likely to outperform India, suggests the recent Jefferies report, coauthored by Mahesh Nandurkar, their managing director along with Abhinav Sinha and Nishant Poddar.
Shares of MRF crossed a first time Rs 100,000 mark, hitting a record high of Rs 100,300, up 1.4 per cent on the BSE in intra-day trade. on June 13, 2023. The stock surpassed its previous high of Rs 99,879.65, touched May 8, 2023. Thus far in the current calendar year 2023 (CY23), MRF has outperformed the market by gaining 14 per cent on improved financial performance.
'If there is any reason to change my holding in Adani group stocks, the Hindenburg report on the group is not the one.'
'The biggest risk to the Indian markets from a 12-18-month view is that the current government does not get re-elected, or loses in a way that is not represented at all in the next central government.'
Less-than-expected rainfall and a poor spatial distribution, experts say, can rekindle fears of a rise in food and fuel inflation that can have an impact on the RBI's monetary policy. The fear of less than optimal rainfall due to El Nino this year, analysts believe, is the biggest short-term risk for the markets, which they said has not been fully priced in yet by them. Monsoon set over Kerala on June 08, a week later than its scheduled date.
Indian equity markets have a limited upside potential in the near-term as they negotiate the ensuing cyclical slowdown, wrote analysts at Nomura in a recent coauthored report led by Saion Mukherjee, their managing director and head of equity research for India. He, however, believes that the foundations are in place for sustainable growth over the medium-to-long term, and hence suggests a 'buy on dips' strategy to equity investors. As an investment strategy, Nomura prefers domestic-oriented sectors and companies over exporters, and prefers stocks that provide valuation comfort. Industrials and banks are their overweight sectors, while IT services and consumer discretionary are their underweight sectors.
Over half, or 269 NSE 500 stocks, have given over 10-fold (10x) returns in the last two decades, finds a recent report by Goldman Sachs that analysed 10 major markets across emerging and developed markets (EM/DM) that covered 6,700 stocks. The report examined '10-baggers' - stocks that have generated at least 10x total returns within a rolling 5-year period over the past two decades. Some of the prominent ones that comprise these 269 stocks in the Indian context stocks that delivered over 10x total returns over a 5-year rolling period since 2000 as per Goldman Sachs includes Westlife Foodworld, Bharti Airtel, Adani Total Gas, Patanjali Foods, Larsen & Toubro, BEML, Blue Star, Shree Cement, Lupin, Godrej Industries, Astral, Adani Enterprises, Hindustan Petroleum and Deepak Fertilisers.
At an aggregate level, the late ace investor's portfolio that was valued at Rs 32,445 crore as on March 31, 2023 is now worth Rs 35,979 crore.
The Indian markets have seen a good run in the last three months with the S&P BSE Sensex rising around 7 per cent and the Nifty50 moving up 7.5 per cent. The next leg of the market rally from here on, analysts suggest, will be driven by a growth in corporate earnings over the next few quarters. That said, they do not expect material / sharp downgrades to India Inc's earnings estimates despite headwinds for the economy.
'...over the long-term can be done only by investing in equities.' 'And during weak macros, one needs t1o allocate more than drawing it down, because they offer the best entry point.'
'Like all long-term bull markets, the Indian stock market will continue to climb the proverbial wall of worry.'
The domestic benchmark indices - the S&P BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty50 - had lost close to 1.5 per cent in three days recently before gaining slightly. Notwithstanding weakness and volatility, the Nifty50 has managed to hold on to the 18,000 mark, while the Sensex has managed to stay above the 61,000 level. The performance of the stocks that comprise these front-line indices remains polarised.
Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies has rejigged his equity portfolios. In his Asia ex-Japan long-only portfolio, he has added Axis Bank (5 per cent weightage) and increased holding in Larsen & Toubro (L&T) by one percentage point. This, Wood said, will be paid for by removing the investment in ICICI Lombard General Insurance and reducing the investments in HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries (RIL) by one percentage point each.
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